Builder in the White House: What’s ahead for built environment? - by Ken Fisher

Ken Fisher, Cozen
O’Connor

Will the age of Trump be the best or the worst of times for New York’s design professionals? Maybe both.

Donald Trump’s unusual electoral success and campaign rhetoric makes predictions difficult a month before his inauguration, with the identity of most of the 4,000 appointments he will need to make unknown, as is the fate of various nominees subject to senate confirmation. He is an unconventional political force, but with only an outsider’s understanding of government. He faces tough choices and challenges both from Congressional Democrats and within his own party.

A developer, with a deep affection for and considerable investment in New York City, Trump may be good for the real estate market because of his tax and regulatory policies, although the impact of his trade policies on foreign investment here and tourism cannot yet be estimated. He will find New York’s Chuck Schumer, now senate minority leader, a powerful ally on aid to New York, if nothing else.

Employment laws, taxes, and a whole host of policy and regulatory choices will affect every business, even as international relations enter unchartered waters, the impacts from which engineering companies are not immune.

Infrastructure was an issue championed by both Trump and secretary Clinton, albeit with different views on how to pay for projects. Clinton was inclined to finance public works through tax revenues and a national infrastructure bank, ideas to which Trump was cool, preferring user-fee backed bonds, although the transition team is looking at an infrastructure bank as well.

Both candidates recognized the historical neglect of transportation, and as a New Yorker, Trump understands that means mass transit as well as roads, bridges and airports, although congress may be reluctant to invest in a Northeast corridor almost entirely blue. Acrimony may extend the gridlock over long term surface transportation funding.

Of course, his signature platform was a wall along the border with Mexico, a unique form of infrastructure with a multi-billion dollar cost.

Trump made provocative comments about climate change, specifically about withdrawing from the Paris accords, making him an outlier internationally on carbon emissions. This has significant global implications for the environment, as well as for the prospects of science-based decision-making. Expect the focus to shift from prevention to resiliency.

Energy production of all types will be favored by the new administration. The President-elect championed natural gas, the revival of coal, and projects like the Keystone pipeline. Incentives for renewable energy will be reduced or eliminated.

Environmental regulations may be significantly reduced, both in terms of industry and project reviews. The transition team is already looking at diminishing the scope of the EPA, beyond reversing President Obama’s executive orders.

Look to a Trump administration to streamline procurement processes on federally funded projects. Whether this will include eliminating Davis-Bacon prevailing wage requirements is unclear, but may be viewed as a cost-cutting measure, as well as a way to reign in union influence.

Trump’s businesses include creative industries such as media and design, but his views on technology and the innovation economy are still inchoate. While President Obama championed the need for STEM education to meet the national shortage of engineers, this was not a focus of Trump’s campaign.

Given the likely sharp turns in focus, it is vitally important that engineers bring the cool calculus of objective analysis and creative problem solving to the public debate. Whether promoting Trump’s policies or resisting them, engineers have a responsibility to bring their education and experience to the civic realm, as individuals and through organizations like the American Council of Engineering Companies. This is true not just at the federal level, as the prevailing philosophy in Washington may devolve power to the states, and elections for mayor and governor on the horizon.

Ken Fisher is an attorney at Cozen O’Connor and a former city council member, New York, N.Y.

Fisher represents ACEC New York Metro Region, but the views expressed are his own.